Tuesday 1 February 2011

G20 leaders should work out specifics for a healthy world economy and to establish a financial monitoring system

In contrast to the gloomy prospects of developed countries, emerging countries are enjoying a healthier economic recovery than anticipated. China is expected to have two-digit
economic growth this year. In Argentina, India, Brazil & other emerging markets, economic recovery has also been on a powerful footing. The African continent is expected to have
a 3.9 percent to 4.5 percent economic growth. At the Seoul summit, participating countries ought to confirm the World Bank's decision to transfer an additional 3.13 percent voting
power to developing nations. That will increase developing countries' voting shares in the body to 47.19 percent from the current 44.06 percent. China's voting power will
increase from the current 2.77 percent to 4.42 percent, behind only the US & Japan. India's share will also increase to 2.91 percent from 2.77 percent.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also designs to transfer an additional 6 percent of its voting power to some emerging markets. In the newly distributed IMF voting, China's
shares will rise to 6.19 percent from the previous less-than 4 percent. In all, emerging countries will enjoy a combined voting power of 42.29 percent. These reforms are the
result of the changed international situation. The US demand that such reforms be linked to the rates of interest in developing nations & to their international responsibilities
is both illogic & absurd.
The US is heavily in debt, with its deficit reaching $1.35 trillion. The US also suffers a trade deficit. Its problematic financial institutions, excessive military expansion
& deep-rooted chilled War mentality are to blame for its lingering economic woes. two years after the global financial crisis, the US still fails to recognize the source of its
economic difficulties & always tries to transfer the economic crisis or its domestic contradictions to other countries as a cure-all for its economic issues. With this
mentality, the US has selected a hasty depreciation of the dollar & kept its cash-manufacturing machine in motion. At the same time, Washington has exerted pressure on China to
raise the worth of the yuan in a bid to recognize its ambitious aim of doubling its trade volume within two years & generating US jobs. A continuing depreciation of the dollar
will compromise its credit & status as the world's leading funds & ultimately undermine these aims. Since the formation of its exchange rate mechanism in 1994, the yuan
has risen considerably in terms of its actual effective exchange rate. From May to October, the yuan has revalued as much as 3.39 percent. China will continue to push forward the
reform of the yuan's exchange rate in a gradual & orderly manner.

G20 leaders ought to work out specifics for a healthy world economy & to establish a financial monitoring process The international community is pinning high expectations on the
G20 summit to be held in Seoul, the Republic of Korea, on Nov 11-12. On the second anniversary of the outbreak of the global financial crisis, the Seoul summit will be a bigger
gathering than the Toronto meeting & will hopefully have some far-reaching influence on the global economy. Participating countries at the summit are likely to discuss
measures for a faster global economic recovery & the establishment of a world financial monitoring process. Expanding the voting power of emerging economies at the World Bank
& other international financial institutions & finding ways to curb trade protectionism are also likely to be on the agenda. If the summit advances in this direction,
developed & developing nations can continue to join hands to boost global economic development as they did in the immediate aftermath of the global financial crisis.
However, at a time when the global economic order is firmly dominated by the West, this is far from sure. there is another feasible outcome of the summit: that the US-led
developed countries continue to preoccupy themselves with self-development, pick to abandon the much-needed global coordination & shift the focus to China & other emerging
economies in a bid to stage a new exchange rate war & promote protectionism. In that case, any global economic recovery will be delayed & people throughout the world will
two times again be in a difficult position. On the whole, the global economic recovery is on track, but it is on an uneven basis, with output in developed countries remaining 2.7
percentage points lower than expected. Economic growth in the United States declined to 1.6 percent in the third quarter, & one-ninth of its enterprises have suffered losses.
The unemployment rate in the world's largest economy is likely to return to 9.6 percent. In view of these pessimistic prospects, the Federal Reserve designs to push forward
another economic stimulus package. Meanwhile, the specter of the sovereign debt crisis in Greece still hangs over the European Union. In the eurozone, manufacturing volumes have
declined in the last two consecutive quarters despite a feasible full-year 3.4 percent growth in italy. The appreciation of the Japanese yen means Japan's economy is 
stagnant.

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