2008, the general deterioration of the international financial crisis spread to the actual economy. The world economy going? Reporter recently interviewed the World Bank Vice President plus Chief Economist, International financial Fund (IMF) chief economist Olivier Blanchard (OliverBlanchard) plus the leading U.S. think tanks?? International Economic Research Institute Fred? Bergsten (FredBergstan) 3 international reputation of economists, listen to them freely about the world economic trends. Appears in Lin Yifu, the World economic outlook worrisome, but not As emerging economies in to recession, if effective global response to world economic growth will likely "U" formed turn, plus in 2010 recovered. it is also recognized by Blanchard, in his view, there's no "magic bullet" can pass rule to the current crisis, conditions in different countries ought to take the responses fit. they stressed that the outlook is not optimistic, but the second half of 2009, the world economy is expected to turnaround.
Bergsten believes that the current economic situation, as a world economic power in the United States plus China must strengthen coordination plus Cooperation they thus proposed the two groups (G2) theory, urged the two countries established a higher level, closer interaction mechanism, the two leaders can meet regularly.
feasible "U"-type transition
Found under the authority of the agency, the U.S. economy was in recession in December 2007, while france, Japan plus other developed economies are also struggling early in the recession.
From the global economic perspective, the academic community usually that if the economic growth rate below 3%, which is the global recession. According to the IMF plus World Bank information, global recession even be expected, China, India, Russia plus other emerging economies, growth will slow sharply. Despite the clear rejection of the economic outlook forecast Blanchard is also prudent that if countries are to take positive measures to cope with the world economy will turnaround in the second half of 2009.
"U.S. house prices is the initiator of the crisis, one of the second half of 2009, the cost will be picked up." they said, In addition, the financial institutions to leverage the issue to the finish of 2009 will also finish Banks will even be willing to loan, the financial crisis will be coming to an finish.
"We now forecast that the first half of 2009, the U.S. economy will register a negative growth, but the second half of slight growth occurs." they said. With the U.S. economy out of its predicament, the world economy a new dawn.
Lin Yifu, however, that although the general pessimistic economic outlook for the world, but the national situation is controversial. "Although the United States plus Europe will continue to put all the unprecedented rescue operation, but whether it can restore confidence in the market remains to be seen...... a recession, but they inevitably will." Lin Yifu
but also to judge, on the global economy as a whole, if the countries to strengthen cooperation in the world economy will be in the approaching year through the current crisis, a new dawn. "If they can act together, the world economic growth will likely 'U' formed turn, plus a recovery in 2010." What a breakthrough deal with the crisis
For plenty of economies, the most pressing issue is how to overcome the current crisis plus prevent the economy in to deep recession. Lin Yifu that in the present case, if there's room for fiscal stimulus, States ought to take to stimulate economic plan, increase in infrastructure, schooling plus health sector investment, promote economic growth.
Different national circumstances, investment while similar, but must pay attention to different ways plus effects. Lin Yifu of the view that developed countries, the necessity to prevent the large-scale Japanese investment in the 90's poor performance in the lesson. Lin Yifu
in view, to stimulate the economy, developed countries can not invest for investment, but need to find appropriate areas of need bottleneck, in this way can the long-term economic growth.
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